Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Partners Innovation Fund vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (4 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.5%–78.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+1.6 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 48.4%
Vs median VC book
-10.4 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 60.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-23.7 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 73.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-26.6 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 76.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
48
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Campus Shiftcampusshift.com | 2012 | No | 61 | — |
| Zuga Medicalzugamedical.com | 2012 | Yes | 61 | — |
| TargAnoxtarganox.com | 2009 | No | 56 | — |
| ScoreFeederscorefeeder.com | 2012 | No | 50 | — |
| InStore Financeinstorefinance.com | 2012 | Yes | 47 | — |
| TIP Imaging | 2012 | No | 43 | — |
| via680vingapp.com | 2012 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Editas Medicineeditasmedicine.com | 2013 | Yes | 33 | — |