Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Passion Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 72.7% (8 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.4%–90.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.1%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+24.7 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 48.1%
Vs median VC book
+10.8 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 61.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-4.8 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 77.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.0 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 76.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tripbirdstripbirds.com | 2012 | No | 85 | — |
| EyeEmeyeem.com | 2011 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Adzunaadzuna.co.uk | 2011 | Yes | 74 | — |
| DueDilduedil.com | 2011 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Flattrflattr.com | 2012 | No | 62 | — |
| Luluonlulu.com | 2011 | Yes | 57 | — |
| WIREWAXwirewax.com | 2011 | No | 40 | — |
| Toothpicktoothpick.com | 2012 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Car Throttlecarthrottle.com | 2012 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Vicampovicampo.de | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Coinfloorcoinfloor.co.uk | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Wedo Shoppingwedo.co.uk | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |