Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Pelion Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (4 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.5%–78.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+6.0 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 44.0%
Vs median VC book
-5.1 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 55.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-21.5 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 71.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-23.1 pp
42.9% on 7 deals vs 65.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
72
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+3.2 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CloudFlarecloudflare.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| AngioScoreangioscore.com | 2007 | No | 90 | — |
| StyleTrekstyletrek.com | 2010 | No | 87 | — |
| Bitcasa, Inc.bitcasa.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Venafivenafi.com | 2006 | No | 75 | — |
| Strix Systemsstrixsystems.com | 2003 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Primary Dataprimarydata.com | 2013 | Yes | 42 | — |
| MX Logicmxlogic.com | 2006 | No | 35 | — |