Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Peninsula Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 44.4% (4 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.9%–73.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+3.5 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 41.0%
Vs median VC book
-7.7 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 52.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-23.1 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 67.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-14.4 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 58.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (2 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 7.1%–59.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+12.3 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 12.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scifinitiscifiniti.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Crowd Factorycrowdfactory.com | 2008 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| SeeControlseecontrol.com | 2005 | No | 92 | — |
| Response Analyticsresponseanalytics.com | 2007 | No | 76 | — |
| Axcientaxcient.com | 2008 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Green Pluggreenplug.us | 2008 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Factor Technology Groupfactortg.com | 2007 | No | 56 | — |
| MESoftmesoft.com | 2007 | No | 45 | — |
| Transcept Pharmaceuticalstransoral.com | 2007 | No | 9 | — |