Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Pentech Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 84.6% (11 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 57.8%–95.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+41.8 pp
84.6% on 13 deals vs 42.8%
Vs median VC book
+32.6 pp
84.6% on 13 deals vs 52.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+17.7 pp
84.6% on 13 deals vs 66.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+10.8 pp
80.0% on 10 deals vs 69.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
70
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (3 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 8.9%–53.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+12.0 pp
25.0% on 12 deals vs 13.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CriticalBluecriticalblue.com | 2003 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Maxymisermaxymiser.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Acunuacunu.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Rapid Mobilerapid-mobile.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | — |
| SeeWhyseewhy.com | 2004 | Yes | 95 | Yes |
| Metaforicmetaforic.com | 2008 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Nutmegnutmeg.com | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Struqstruq.com | 2012 | No | 79 | — |
| Outplay Entertainmentoutplay.com | 2010 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Enigmatecenigmatec.com | 2004 | Yes | 44 | — |
| CacheLogiccachelogic.com | 2006 | Yes | 26 | — |
| Velocixvelocix.com | 2006 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Velsys Limitedvelsys.com | 2010 | No | 22 | — |
| Semetricsemetric.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |