Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Pequot Capital vs Kairos
16th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 37.5% (6 of 16 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.5%–61.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 24th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-5.0 pp
37.5% on 16 deals vs 42.5%
Vs median VC book
-18.8 pp
33.3% on 15 deals vs 52.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-32.9 pp
33.3% on 15 deals vs 66.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-38.7 pp
28.6% on 14 deals vs 67.3%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 15 of 16 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
55
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 43.8% (7 of 16). 95% Wilson interval 23.1%–66.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+29.1 pp
43.8% on 16 deals vs 14.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
16 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadra Medicalsadramedical.com | 2004 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Scalent Systemsscalent.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Codexiscodexis.com | 2006 | No | 75 | — |
| Duck Creek Technologiesduckcreektech.com | 2005 | No | 71 | — |
| DiObexdiobex.com | 2005 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Touchdown Technologiestdtech.com | 2005 | No | 59 | — |
| Reflexis Systemsreflexisinc.com | 2006 | No | 57 | — |
| Summit Microelectronicssummitmicro.com | 2006 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Tecturatectura.com | 2005 | No | 52 | — |
| Stemline Therapeuticsstemline.com | 2008 | Yes | 47 | — |
| MAP Pharmaceuticalsmappharma.com | 2007 | No | 45 | — |
| StubHubstubhub.com | 2005 | No | 39 | — |
| Paracor Medicalparacormedical.com | 2007 | No | 34 | — |
| EnzymeRxenzymerx.com | 2008 | No | 30 | — |
| NewRivernewriver.com | 2006 | No | 17 | — |
| Blazentblazent.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |