Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Petra Capital Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 28.6% (2 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–64.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-16.4 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 45.0%
Vs median VC book
-27.0 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 55.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-41.7 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 70.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-36.5 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 65.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
36
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–43.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-11.9 pp
0.0% on 5 deals vs 11.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WellNow Urgent Care Holdingswellnowuc.com | 2012 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Access Media 3am3inc.com | 2012 | No | 49 | — |
| NuView Systemsnuviewinc.com | 2009 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Century Hospicecenturyhospice.com | 2010 | No | 42 | — |
| T2 Systemst2systems.com | 2007 | No | 15 | — |
| Mycroft Inc.mycroftinc.com | 2007 | No | 14 | — |
| Superior Global Solutionssuperiorglobal.com | 2009 | No | 13 | — |
| Highstreet IT Solutionshighstreetit.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |