Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.

Research book · 3-year follow-on

Pinnacle Ventures vs Kairos

Not ranked

Whole-book follow-on hit rate 100.0% (7 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 64.6%–100.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.3%. This is not a fund return.

Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.

Fund board

Vs same-vintage base rate

+52.7 pp

100.0% on 7 deals vs 47.3%

Vs median VC book

+38.3 pp

100.0% on 7 deals vs 61.7%

Vs top-quartile VC

+23.4 pp

100.0% on 7 deals vs 76.6%

Vs Y Combinator

+32.4 pp

100.0% on 7 deals vs 67.6%

Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.

What Kairos would have said

Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.

Deals with a score

Mean model percentile

Flagged deals

0no labeled flagged deals

Companies

7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).

Company	Vintage	Follow-on	Kairos percentile	Flagged
Nextdoornextdoor.com	2012	Yes	89	—
LifeSize, a Division of Logitechlifesize.com	2005	Yes	69	—
Mascomamascoma.com	2006	Yes	56	—
Gemin X Pharmaceuticalsgeminx.com	2008	Yes	23	—
Satietysatiety.com	2007	Yes	20	—
Voxelvoxel.com	2013	Yes	—	—
PSafepsafe.com	2013	Yes	—	—