Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Pitango Venture Capital vs Kairos
54th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.4% (27 of 47 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.3%–70.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 53rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+13.8 pp
57.4% on 47 deals vs 43.6%
Vs median VC book
+3.3 pp
57.8% on 45 deals vs 54.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-11.5 pp
57.8% on 45 deals vs 69.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-13.9 pp
53.7% on 41 deals vs 67.5%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 45 of 47 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
42
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 17.5% (7 of 40). 95% Wilson interval 8.7%–32.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+3.6 pp
17.5% on 40 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
47 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpTieroptier.com | 2003 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| WeFiwefi.com | 2007 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| RocketPlayrocketplay.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Pythagoras Solarpythagoras-solar.com | 2008 | No | 91 | — |
| OptimalTestoptimaltest.com | 2005 | Yes | 89 | — |
| JinkoSolar Holdingjinkosolar.com | 2008 | No | 87 | — |
| Fixyafixya.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Skycureskycure.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| BPTbpt.co.il | 2009 | No | 86 | — |
| Anobit Technologiesanobit.com | 2007 | Yes | 85 | — |
| fring Ltdfring.com | 2006 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Magenta Medicalmagenta-medical.com | 2012 | No | 79 | — |
| Varonis Systemsvaronis.com | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| LifeBond Ltd.life-bond.com | 2009 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Kaminariokaminario.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Converginweb.convergin.com | 2008 | No | 73 | — |
| AxisMobileaxismobile.com | 2007 | No | 73 | — |
| YCD Multimediaycdmultimedia.com | 2006 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Neocrafts | 2006 | No | 71 | — |
| Prolifyprolify.com | 2005 | No | 69 | — |
| EarlySenseearlysense.com | 2010 | Yes | 69 | — |
| VideoSurfvideosurf.com | 2011 | No | 61 | — |
| Transparency Softwaretransparencysoftware.com | 2005 | Yes | 61 | — |
| SURF Communication Solutionssurfsolutions.com | 2005 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Negevtech | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| Iamba Networks | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| Evolven Softwareevolven.com | 2011 | No | 53 | — |
| WinBuyerwinbuyercorp.com | 2009 | No | 52 | — |
| Compass-EOScompass-eos.com | 2010 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Red Bend Softwareredbend.com | 2004 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Provigentprovigent.com | 2004 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Olive Softwareolivesoftware.com | 2005 | Yes | 35 | — |
| AeroScoutaeroscout.com | 2007 | Yes | 33 | — |
| TransPharma Medicaltranspharma-medical.com | 2006 | No | 24 | — |
| Brainsgatebrainsgate.com | 2005 | Yes | 21 | — |
| MobileAccess Networksmobileaccess.com | 2005 | Yes | 21 | — |
| CogniTenscognitens.com | 2005 | No | 20 | — |
| Discretixdiscretix.com | 2007 | No | 19 | — |
| Focal Energyfocal-energy.com | 2008 | No | 17 | — |
| SuperDimensionsuperdimension.com | 2003 | Yes | 15 | — |
| StarNet Interactive | 2006 | No | 10 | — |
| Traianatraiana.com | 2005 | No | 8 | — |
| VisionCare Ophthalmic Technologiesvisioncareinc.net | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| ForeScout Technologies, Inc.forescout.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| JethroDatajethrodata.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| SalesPredictsalespredict.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Ubimoubimo.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |