Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Plough Penny Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 83.3% (5 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.6%–97.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+38.0 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 45.3%
Vs median VC book
+27.3 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 56.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+13.3 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 70.0%
Vs Y Combinator
+11.7 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 71.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeelzeel.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| We Heart Itweheartit.com | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| BONDS.COMbonds.com | 2011 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Cel-Fi by Nextivitycel-fi.com | 2009 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Game Trustgametrust.com | 2005 | Yes | 33 | — |
| KoolConnect Technologieskoolconnect.tv | 2007 | No | 28 | — |
| basnobasno.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Tinypasspiano.io | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| DietBetterdietbetter.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |