Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Plug & Play Ventures vs Kairos
80th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 72.5% (29 of 40 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 57.2%–83.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 73rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+24.5 pp
72.5% on 40 deals vs 48.0%
Vs median VC book
+10.7 pp
72.5% on 40 deals vs 61.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-4.4 pp
72.5% on 40 deals vs 76.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-2.5 pp
72.5% on 40 deals vs 75.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
35
Mean model percentile
76
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 41.7% (5 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 19.3%–68.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+30.1 pp
41.7% on 12 deals vs 11.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
40 labeled follow-on deals, 5 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| isocketisocket.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Proven Groupprovenskincare.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Credit Sesamecreditsesame.com | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| GetGoinggetgoing.com | 2012 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Moziomozio.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| MindSumomindsumo.com | 2012 | No | 93 | — |
| Skytreeskytree.net | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Graphdivegraphdive.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| mon.kimon.ki | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Nor1nor1.com | 2009 | Yes | 89 | — |
| NGDATAngdata.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| NatureBoxnaturebox.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| KaChing!getkaching.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Zulizuli.io | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Viroolvirool.com | 2012 | Yes | 82 | — |
| HealthPockethealthpocket.com | 2012 | No | 82 | — |
| Fotomotofotomoto.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Matchamatcha-health.com | 2011 | Yes | 81 | — |
| PiCloudpicloud.com | 2010 | No | 79 | — |
| Aarkiaarki.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| TravelTipz.rutraveltipz.ru | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| FiscalNotefiscalnote.com | 2013 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Rentmetricsrentmetrics.com | 2012 | No | 72 | — |
| Airy Labsairylabs.com | 2011 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Sonda41sonda41.com | 2012 | No | 65 | — |
| Pulse.iopulse.io | 2012 | Yes | 65 | — |
| BookingPalmybookingpal.com | 2013 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Kloudlesskloudless.com | 2011 | Yes | 59 | — |
| gripNotegripnote.com | 2011 | No | 58 | — |
| Parallocityparallocity.com | 2005 | No | 57 | — |
| TrustHoptrusthop.com | 2011 | No | 57 | — |
| Capseocapseo.com | 2010 | No | 50 | — |
| MOBIbucksmobibucks.com | 2011 | Yes | 45 | — |
| FoodyDirectfoodydirect.com | 2011 | No | 38 | — |
| StyleChatstylechatmobile.com | 2011 | No | 30 | — |
| fl3urfl3ur.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Espresso Logicespressologic.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Eversnapeversnapapp.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Meographmeograph.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| SyMyndsymynd.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| DabKickdabkick.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Reachlireachli.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Hypecalhypecal.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Jugoplayjugo.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Podo Labspodolabs.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |