Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Point Judith Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 42.9% (6 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.4%–67.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-2.7 pp
42.9% on 14 deals vs 45.5%
Vs median VC book
-16.4 pp
42.9% on 14 deals vs 59.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-32.0 pp
42.9% on 14 deals vs 74.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-21.4 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 67.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (2 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 5.7%–51.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+6.6 pp
20.0% on 10 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retroficiencyretroficiency.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| Evergageevergage.com | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Vee24vee24.com | 2013 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Vaultus Mobilevaultus.com | 2008 | No | 78 | — |
| TicketManagerticketmanager.com | 2010 | No | 69 | — |
| Sittercitysittercity.com | 2009 | Yes | 67 | — |
| TAZZ Networks | 2005 | No | 64 | — |
| Music Nationmusicnation.com | 2007 | Yes | 63 | — |
| GetWellNetwork, Inc.getwellnetwork.com | 2005 | No | 53 | — |
| enVistaenvistacorp.com | 2007 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Novare Surgicalnovaresurgical.com | 2006 | No | 41 | — |
| YesGraphyesgraph.com | 2013 | Yes | 40 | — |
| AetherPalaetherpal.com | 2013 | No | 36 | — |
| Taquataqua.com | 2003 | No | 28 | — |