Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Point Nine Capital vs Kairos
73rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 77.8% (14 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 54.8%–91.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 82nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+30.1 pp
77.8% on 18 deals vs 47.7%
Vs median VC book
+15.9 pp
77.8% on 18 deals vs 61.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
+0.2 pp
77.8% on 18 deals vs 77.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+1.7 pp
77.8% on 18 deals vs 76.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
17
Mean model percentile
62
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (1 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 3.6%–62.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+8.6 pp
20.0% on 5 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 4 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| StyleSeatstyleseat.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| DS Digitale Seitendigitaleseiten.de | 2010 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Positionlypositionly.com | 2012 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Brainlybrainly.com | 2012 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Octopusappgetjobber.com | 2012 | No | 81 | — |
| Delivery Herodeliveryhero.com | 2010 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Lieferheldlieferheld.de | 2011 | No | 71 | — |
| Cliogoclio.com | 2012 | Yes | 71 | — |
| ShiftPlanningshiftplanning.com | 2011 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Algoliaalgolia.com | 2013 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Cibandocibando.com | 2011 | No | 55 | — |
| Unbounceunbounce.com | 2011 | No | 50 | — |
| Typeform | 2013 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Couchsurfingcouchsurfing.org | 2011 | Yes | 42 | — |
| asgoodasnew electronics GmbHasgoodasnew.com | 2010 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Vendvendhq.com | 2011 | Yes | 42 | — |
| docplannerdocplanner.com | 2012 | Yes | 23 | — |
| ePetWorld | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Combatant Gentlemencombatgent.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Mentionmention.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Handshakehandshake-app.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Scondooscondoo.de | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |