Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Polaris Partners vs Kairos
95th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.2% (59 of 84 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 59.8%–79.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 77th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+27.2 pp
70.2% on 84 deals vs 43.0%
Vs median VC book
+17.4 pp
70.4% on 81 deals vs 53.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+2.0 pp
70.4% on 81 deals vs 68.4%
Vs Y Combinator
+0.0 pp
66.2% on 68 deals vs 66.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 81 of 84 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
81
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
33/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (18 of 72). 95% Wilson interval 16.4%–36.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+11.6 pp
25.0% on 72 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
84 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TARIS Biomedicaltarisbiomedical.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Pulmatrixpulmatrix.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Parasol Therapeutics | 2009 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Thing Labsthinglabs.com | 2008 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Selecta Biosciencesselectabio.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| ShoeDazzleshoedazzle.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| PublicEarthpublicearth.com | 2008 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Recurlyrecurly.com | 2010 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Genocea Biosciencesgenocea.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Lolappslolapps.com | 2008 | No | 96 | — |
| Living Prooflivingproof.com | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Wantfulwantful.com | 2012 | No | 94 | — |
| TopFloortopfloor.com | 2012 | No | 93 | — |
| Modeliniamodelinia.com | 2008 | No | 93 | — |
| MessageGatemessagegate.com | 2003 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Adnexusadnexustx.com | 2003 | No | 91 | — |
| Hangout Industrieshangout.net | 2007 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Veracodeveracode.com | 2006 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Cerulean Pharmaceruleanrx.com | 2006 | Yes | 90 | — |
| BIND Therapeutics, Inc.bindtherapeutics.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| 480 Biomedical480biomedical.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Spindlespindle.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Message Busmessagebus.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Sun Catalytixsuncatalytix.com | 2009 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Soshsosh.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| T2 Biosystemst2biosystems.com | 2006 | Yes | 88 | — |
| aTyr Pharmaatyrpharma.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Stickybitsstickybits.com | 2010 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Promediorpromedior.com | 2006 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Automatticautomattic.com | 2005 | Yes | 84 | — |
| BridgePoint Medicalbridgepointmedical.com | 2007 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Acceleron Pharmaacceleronpharma.com | 2006 | Yes | 83 | — |
| ARPUarpuinc.com | 2006 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Allurentallurent.com | 2007 | Yes | 81 | — |
| 1366 Technologies1366tech.com | 2008 | Yes | 81 | — |
| CatchFreecatchfree.com | 2011 | No | 79 | — |
| Aria Retirement Solutionsretireone.com | 2012 | Yes | 79 | — |
| VKernel Corporationvkernel.com | 2008 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Apnex Medicalapnexmedical.com | 2007 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Asempra Technologies | 2006 | No | 77 | — |
| Q1 Labsq1labs.com | 2003 | Yes | 76 | — |
| BridgePort Networksbridgeport-networks.com | 2004 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Turbineturbine.com | 2003 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Prospex Medicalprospexmedical.com | 2005 | No | 72 | — |
| Vets First Choicevetsfirstchoice.com | 2012 | Yes | 72 | — |
| JibJabjibjab.com | 2006 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Fate Therapeuticsfatetherapeutics.com | 2007 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Jibejibe.com | 2010 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Alimera Sciencesalimerasciences.com | 2004 | Yes | 67 | — |
| mValentmvalent.com | 2005 | No | 59 | — |
| Art.comart.com | 2004 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Cardiac Conceptscardiacconcepts.com | 2008 | Yes | 56 | — |
| WikiCell Designswikipearl.com | 2012 | No | 55 | — |
| Experience, Inc.experience.com | 2009 | No | 51 | — |
| Imprivataimprivata.com | 2006 | Yes | 51 | — |
| BlackArrowblackarrow.tv | 2004 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Zingdom Communications | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| Paratekparatek.com | 2004 | Yes | 45 | — |
| AgBiomeagbiome.com | 2013 | Yes | 45 | — |
| PhyFlex Networks | 2004 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Pervasis Therapeuticspervasistx.com | 2004 | Yes | 42 | — |
| SiCortexsicortex.com | 2004 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Trevenatrevenainc.com | 2008 | Yes | 40 | — |
| US HealthVestushealthvest.com | 2013 | No | 38 | — |
| Archivasarchivas.com | 2006 | No | 35 | — |
| Wakonda Technologieswakondatech.com | 2008 | No | 34 | — |
| Editas Medicineeditasmedicine.com | 2013 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Infinite Power Solutionsinfinitepowersolutions.com | 2006 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Frictionless Commerce | 2005 | No | 28 | — |
| iceice.com | 2008 | No | 26 | — |
| Free & Clearfreeclear.com | 2010 | No | 24 | — |
| Confluence Technologiesconfluence.com | 2006 | No | 24 | — |
| Alectoralector.com | 2013 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Nanosysnanosysinc.com | 2003 | Yes | 18 | — |
| WHI Solutionwhisolutions.com | 2006 | No | 17 | — |
| FREEjit | 2010 | No | 13 | — |
| Impinjimpinj.com | 2005 | Yes | 13 | — |
| HealthCentralhealthcentral.com | 2008 | No | 13 | — |
| Aeponaaepona.com | 2005 | Yes | 12 | — |
| Athletes' Performanceathletesperformance.com | 2006 | No | 9 | — |
| Digital Safety Technologiesdigitalsafetytech.com | 2005 | No | 9 | — |
| Emberembercopilot.ai | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| NextCode Healthnextcode.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Athenixathenixcorp.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Bluetrain.iobluetrain.io | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| 170 Systems170systems.com | 2002 | No | — | — |