Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Portland Seed Fund vs Kairos
13th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 41.2% (7 of 17 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.6%–64.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 22nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-6.3 pp
41.2% on 17 deals vs 47.5%
Vs median VC book
-19.0 pp
41.2% on 17 deals vs 60.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-34.1 pp
41.2% on 17 deals vs 75.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-36.6 pp
41.2% on 17 deals vs 77.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
16
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
17 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SERPsserps.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Vizifyvizify.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Wikiswaywikisway.com | 2012 | No | 83 | — |
| Geoloqigeoloqi.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Good Works Nowgoodworksnow.com | 2012 | No | 73 | — |
| Hivelyteamhively.com | 2011 | No | 66 | — |
| Gliphgli.ph | 2012 | Yes | 62 | — |
| GlobeSherpaglobesherpa.com | 2012 | Yes | 58 | — |
| cb_tell-it-intellitin10.com | 2012 | No | 57 | — |
| Showkickershowkicker.com | 2012 | No | 56 | — |
| Beeminderbeeminder.com | 2012 | No | 56 | — |
| Cellycel.ly | 2013 | No | 54 | — |
| Comic Rocketcomic-rocket.com | 2011 | No | 47 | — |
| LaunchSide.comlaunchside.com | 2011 | No | 43 | — |
| Homeschool Snowboardinghomeschoolsnowboarding.com | 2011 | Yes | 28 | — |
| LaunchSidelaunchside.com | 2011 | No | 21 | — |
| PrestoBoxprestobox.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |