Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Prime Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 42.9% (6 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.4%–67.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-3.1 pp
42.9% on 14 deals vs 45.9%
Vs median VC book
-14.5 pp
42.9% on 14 deals vs 57.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-29.8 pp
42.9% on 14 deals vs 72.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-26.1 pp
42.9% on 14 deals vs 69.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
56
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 11.1% (1 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 2.0%–43.5%.
Vs exit base rate
-1.7 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 12.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Layarlayar.com | 2010 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Codenomiconcodenomicon.com | 2005 | No | 84 | — |
| Palringopalringo.com | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Wireless Dynamics | 2006 | No | 75 | — |
| Service2Mediaservice2media.com | 2011 | No | 75 | — |
| Civolutioncivolution.com | 2009 | No | 64 | — |
| Intrinsic-IDintrinsic-id.com | 2012 | No | 50 | — |
| AppLiftapplift.com | 2013 | Yes | 48 | — |
| SellABandsellaband.com | 2008 | No | 48 | — |
| Greetzgreetz.nl | 2007 | Yes | 44 | — |
| IPDIAipdia.com | 2009 | No | 37 | — |
| Takeaway.comcorporate.takeaway.com | 2012 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Eutechnyxpress.eutechnyx.com | 2010 | No | 31 | — |
| Mendixmendix.com | 2011 | Yes | 25 | — |