Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Prism Venture Management vs Kairos
87th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 76.0% (19 of 25 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 56.6%–88.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 87th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+34.2 pp
76.0% on 25 deals vs 41.8%
Vs median VC book
+26.2 pp
77.3% on 22 deals vs 51.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+10.8 pp
77.3% on 22 deals vs 66.4%
Vs Y Combinator
+12.8 pp
73.7% on 19 deals vs 60.9%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 22 of 25 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
22
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 37.5% (9 of 24). 95% Wilson interval 21.2%–57.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+24.0 pp
37.5% on 24 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
25 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conduit Labsconduitlabs.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| MOTA Motorsmota.com | 2008 | Yes | 97 | — |
| RatePointratepoint.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Receivables Exchangerecx.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Lifecrowdlifecrowd.com | 2012 | No | 91 | — |
| Sparkplay Mediasparkplaymedia.com | 2008 | Yes | 91 | — |
| 5to15to1.com | 2009 | Yes | 90 | — |
| KickAppskickapps.com | 2006 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Six Degrees Gamessixdegreesgames.com | 2008 | Yes | 86 | — |
| WorldWide Biggiesworldwidebiggies.com | 2007 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Colubris Networkscolubris.com | 2004 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Everypoint | 2005 | Yes | 79 | — |
| LogMeInlogmeininc.com | 2004 | Yes | 72 | — |
| ibeatyouibeatyou.com | 2008 | No | 69 | — |
| Expoexpo.dev | 2006 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Proteon Therapeuticsproteontherapeutics.com | 2007 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Astoria Softwareastoriasoftware.com | 2009 | No | 49 | — |
| SiCortexsicortex.com | 2004 | Yes | 42 | — |
| PGP TrustCenterpgptrustcenter.com | 2007 | No | 37 | — |
| CoAxiacoaxia.com | 2006 | Yes | 36 | — |
| AXSUN Technologiesaxsun.com | 2006 | No | 23 | — |
| SiGe Semiconductorsige.com | 2005 | Yes | 16 | — |
| MedManage Systemsmedmanagesystems.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Ingrian Networksingrian.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Softricity | 2002 | No | — | — |