Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Pritzker Group Venture Capital vs Kairos
23rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 48.4% (15 of 31 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 32.0%–65.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 35th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+3.1 pp
48.4% on 31 deals vs 45.3%
Vs median VC book
-8.3 pp
48.4% on 31 deals vs 56.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-22.9 pp
48.4% on 31 deals vs 71.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-30.0 pp
46.7% on 30 deals vs 76.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
30
Mean model percentile
72
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 70.0% (7 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 39.7%–89.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+55.7 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 14.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
31 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm58firm58.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Signalsignal.co | 2010 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Citybotcitybot.com | 2012 | No | 91 | — |
| AwesomenessTVawesomenesstvnetwork.com | 2012 | No | 91 | — |
| Food Geniusgetfoodgenius.com | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| SimpleRelevancesimplerelevance.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Evedeved.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Pindroppindrop.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Lassolassocountry.com | 2012 | No | 85 | — |
| EVENTupeventup.com | 2012 | No | 85 | — |
| Whimseyboxwhimseybox.com | 2012 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Cureeocureeo.com | 2012 | No | 80 | — |
| Fibroblastfibroblast.com | 2012 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Shortlistgetshortlist.com | 2011 | No | 78 | — |
| Moxie Jeanmoxiejean.com | 2012 | Yes | 77 | — |
| BrightNestbrightnest.com | 2011 | No | 77 | — |
| Goshigoshi.me | 2011 | No | 75 | — |
| Univauniva.com | 2005 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Univa UDunivaud.com | 2005 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Exchangerytheexchangery.com | 2011 | No | 70 | — |
| Pictarinepictarine.com | 2012 | No | 70 | — |
| IntroFlyintrofly.com | 2011 | No | 64 | — |
| frintitfrintit.at | 2012 | No | 64 | — |
| CookItFor.Uscookitfor.us | 2011 | No | 62 | — |
| Joystickersjoystickers.com | 2011 | No | 60 | — |
| TicketsNowticketsnow.com | 2007 | No | 56 | — |
| Buzz Digital (formerly Buzz Referrals)buzzdigital.com | 2011 | Yes | 54 | — |
| SMS Assistsms-assist.com | 2011 | Yes | 48 | — |
| NewRivernewriver.com | 2006 | No | 17 | — |
| Everdreameverdream.com | 2003 | Yes | 12 | — |
| Simple.TVsimple.tv | 2013 | Yes | — | — |