Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Prolog Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 55.6% (5 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 26.7%–81.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+11.0 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 44.5%
Vs median VC book
+2.3 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 53.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-13.6 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 69.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-12.2 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 67.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
71
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (1 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 2.6%–51.3%.
Vs exit base rate
-0.5 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 14.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AirXpandersairxpanders.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Singulexsingulex.com | 2006 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Venitivenitimedical.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Chlorogenchlorogen.com | 2005 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Divergencedivergence.com | 2009 | No | 71 | — |
| EraGen Bioscienceseragen.com | 2006 | No | 62 | — |
| Akerminakermin.com | 2007 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Travanti Pharmatravantipharma.com | 2006 | No | 53 | — |
| The Nest Collective | 2011 | No | 48 | — |