Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Promus Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 87.5% (7 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.9%–97.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 50.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+36.9 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 50.6%
Vs median VC book
+20.5 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 67.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+5.9 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 81.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+11.6 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 75.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
78
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NewHoundnewhound.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Kahunakahuna.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Chromatikchromatik.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Gauss Surgicalgausssurgical.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| BackOpsbackops.co | 2012 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Tulip Retailtulip.io | 2013 | No | 67 | — |
| Layerlayer.com | 2013 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Audiodraftaudiodraft.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| First Opinionfirstopinionapp.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Sqwigglesqwiggle.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |