Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Prospect Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 72.7% (8 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.4%–90.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+31.7 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 41.0%
Vs median VC book
+21.5 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 51.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
+6.1 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+5.1 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 64.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 11.1% (1 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 2.0%–43.5%.
Vs exit base rate
-2.7 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 13.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFinedfineinc.com | 2005 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Alvine Pharmaceuticalsalvinepharma.com | 2006 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Cogentus Pharmaceuticalscogentus.net | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Topica Pharmaceuticalstopicapharma.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Baxanobaxano.com | 2008 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Roxro Pharmaroxropharma.com | 2007 | No | 67 | — |
| Allux Medical | 2005 | No | 49 | — |
| SurePoint Medicalsurepointmedical.com | 2011 | No | 45 | — |
| NGM Biopharmaceuticalsngmbio.com | 2008 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Nanosysnanosysinc.com | 2003 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Neomendneomend.com | 2007 | Yes | 14 | — |