Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
QiMing Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 87.5% (7 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.9%–97.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+44.2 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 43.3%
Vs median VC book
+33.4 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 54.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+18.2 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 69.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+21.9 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 65.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (1 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 2.6%–51.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+2.9 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 11.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xiaomimi.com | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| eHi Car Rental1hai.cn | 2008 | Yes | 92 | — |
| LP Aminalpamina.com | 2008 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Crown Biosciencecrownbio.com | 2008 | No | 80 | — |
| YPX Cayman Holdingsypxfood.com | 2010 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Forgameforgame.com | 2012 | Yes | 63 | — |
| TutorGrouptutor-group.com | 2012 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Nurien Softwarenurien.com | 2008 | Yes | 13 | — |