Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Qualcomm Ventures vs Kairos
81st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 81.3% (13 of 16 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 57.0%–93.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 90th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+37.0 pp
81.3% on 16 deals vs 44.2%
Vs median VC book
+25.4 pp
80.0% on 15 deals vs 54.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
+9.8 pp
80.0% on 15 deals vs 70.2%
Vs Y Combinator
+11.7 pp
80.0% on 15 deals vs 68.3%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 15 of 16 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 41.7% (5 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 19.3%–68.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+28.9 pp
41.7% on 12 deals vs 12.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
16 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariesoarieso.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Blipparblippar.com | 2012 | No | 88 | — |
| Aicentaicent.com | 2007 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Streamezzostreamezzo.com | 2006 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Tempo AItempo.ai | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| AliveCoralivecor.com | 2011 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Supernovasupernova.io | 2010 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Playneryplaynery.com | 2012 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Tela Innovationstela-inc.com | 2008 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Edupathedupath.com | 2011 | No | 60 | — |
| Zeebozeeboinc.com | 2010 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Sotera Wirelesssoterawireless.com | 2008 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Digit Wirelessdigitwireless.com | 2005 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Validity Sensorsvalidityinc.com | 2006 | Yes | 13 | — |
| Pantechpantech.com | 2009 | No | 5 | — |
| Jamdat Mobileeamobile.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| iOnRoadionroad.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |