Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Quest Venture Partners vs Kairos
76th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 78.9% (15 of 19 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 56.7%–91.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 84th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+31.4 pp
78.9% on 19 deals vs 47.6%
Vs median VC book
+18.9 pp
78.9% on 19 deals vs 60.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+3.5 pp
78.9% on 19 deals vs 75.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+10.9 pp
78.9% on 19 deals vs 68.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
81
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 8.3% (1 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 1.5%–35.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-2.5 pp
8.3% on 12 deals vs 10.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
19 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HighlightCamhighlightcam.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| isocketisocket.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Ifeelgoodsifeelgoods.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| GENWIgenwi.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| 500Friends500friends.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| CrowdFlowercrowdflower.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Virgancevirgance.com | 2009 | No | 97 | — |
| Monogrammonogrammag.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Stipplestipple.com | 2010 | Yes | 89 | — |
| MindMeldexpectlabs.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Tripping.comtripping.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Famo.usfamo.us | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Sociable Labssociablelabs.com | 2009 | Yes | 85 | — |
| DogVacaydogvacay.com | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Fast Societyfastsociety.com | 2010 | No | 82 | — |
| The Bouqs Companythebouqs.com | 2013 | Yes | 54 | — |
| iSitesisites.us | 2010 | No | 16 | — |
| Fididelinteractnowsolutions.com | 2008 | No | 14 | — |
| AdStageadstage.io | 2013 | Yes | — | — |