Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Quester Capital vs Kairos
43rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.0% (9 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.7%–80.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 59th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+16.4 pp
60.0% on 15 deals vs 43.6%
Vs median VC book
+10.6 pp
64.3% on 14 deals vs 53.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-2.4 pp
64.3% on 14 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-7.1 pp
64.3% on 14 deals vs 71.4%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 14 of 15 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
47
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 6.7% (1 of 15). 95% Wilson interval 1.2%–29.8%.
Vs exit base rate
-8.6 pp
6.7% on 15 deals vs 15.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ClusterSevenclusterseven.com | 2006 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Oxford Immunotecoxfordimmunotec.com | 2005 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Secernosecerno.com | 2006 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Lectus Therapeuticslectustherapeutics.com | 2006 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Arithmaticaarithmatica.com | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| Celona Technologiescelona.com | 2005 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Global Silicon | 2005 | No | 47 | — |
| Critical Pharmaceuticalscriticalpharmaceuticals.com | 2005 | Yes | 45 | — |
| UniServityuniservity.com | 2007 | No | 42 | — |
| Symetricasymetrica.com | 2005 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Nanotecturenanotecture.co.uk | 2005 | No | 35 | — |
| Axilicaaxilica.com | 2007 | No | 32 | — |
| Level Four Softwarelevelfour.com | 2005 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Micrimamicrima.com | 2006 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Workshareworkshare.com | 2002 | No | — | — |