Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Quotidian Ventures vs Kairos
47th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 61.5% (16 of 26 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 42.5%–77.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 53rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+14.1 pp
61.5% on 26 deals vs 47.5%
Vs median VC book
+0.2 pp
61.5% on 26 deals vs 61.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-16.0 pp
61.5% on 26 deals vs 77.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-14.5 pp
61.5% on 26 deals vs 76.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
25
Mean model percentile
68
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 66.7% (8 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 39.1%–86.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+55.3 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
26 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Circacirca.co | 2012 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| LaunchRocklaunchrock.com | 2011 | No | 96 | — |
| Wallaby Financialwalla.by | 2012 | No | 94 | — |
| Adcadeadcade.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Amicusamicushq.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Brass Monkeyplaybrassmonkey.com | 2012 | No | 88 | — |
| Veriveri.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Tapadtapad.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Matchbookmatchbook.co | 2012 | No | 81 | — |
| Artsicleartsicle.com | 2011 | No | 80 | — |
| Docracydocracy.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Loculocu.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| BrightNestbrightnest.com | 2011 | No | 77 | — |
| Paintzenpaintzen.com | 2013 | Yes | 73 | — |
| FieldLensfieldlens.com | 2011 | Yes | 71 | — |
| SponsorHubsponsorhub.com | 2011 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Hitposthitpost.com | 2010 | Yes | 69 | — |
| DuePropsdueprops.com | 2011 | No | 59 | — |
| Simplistgetsimplist.com | 2010 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Snapjoysnapjoy.com | 2011 | No | 51 | — |
| Idea.meidea.me | 2011 | Yes | 40 | — |
| YesGraphyesgraph.com | 2013 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Clipgoclip.com | 2011 | No | 27 | — |
| Splash Inc.splash9.com | 2011 | Yes | 20 | — |
| Patternspatterns.app | 2013 | No | 13 | — |
| Grand St.grandst.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| FaithStreetfaithstreet.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Indicateindicate.io | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |