Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Real Ventures vs Kairos
17th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 47.4% (9 of 19 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 27.3%–68.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 30th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-0.8 pp
47.4% on 19 deals vs 48.1%
Vs median VC book
-14.0 pp
47.4% on 19 deals vs 61.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-28.3 pp
47.4% on 19 deals vs 75.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-30.6 pp
47.4% on 19 deals vs 77.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
19
Mean model percentile
67
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 80.0% (4 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 37.6%–96.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+68.6 pp
80.0% on 5 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
19 labeled follow-on deals, 5 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Execution Labsexecutionlabs.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Buyospherebuyosphere.com | 2012 | No | 85 | — |
| Datacraticdatacratic.com | 2012 | No | 82 | — |
| ViralNinjasviralninjas.com | 2012 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Crowdbasecrowdbase.com | 2012 | No | 81 | — |
| Taste Filtertastefilter.com | 2012 | No | 79 | — |
| Clarityclarity.fm | 2012 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Rewardlirewardli.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Frank & Oakfrankandoak.com | 2012 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Fabric Enginefabricengine.com | 2010 | No | 74 | — |
| SweetIQ Analyticssweetiq.com | 2011 | No | 73 | — |
| Seevibesseevibes.com | 2012 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Engagio (old)engag.io | 2012 | No | 56 | — |
| Unbounceunbounce.com | 2011 | No | 50 | — |
| Busbudbusbud.com | 2013 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Lagoalagoa.com | 2013 | Yes | 47 | — |
| OMsignalomsignal.com | 2013 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Cinemagramcinemagr.am | 2012 | No | 39 | — |
| Factyle | 2011 | No | 30 | — |
| Relayrelay.im | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Opencareopencare.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Listnlistn.co | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| MConcierge Systemsmconciergesystems.com | 2011 | Unobserved | — | — |
| ooomfooomf.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |