Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Red Swan Ventures vs Kairos
71st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 81.3% (13 of 16 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 57.0%–93.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 50.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 84th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+31.2 pp
81.3% on 16 deals vs 50.1%
Vs median VC book
+15.9 pp
81.3% on 16 deals vs 65.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
+1.9 pp
81.3% on 16 deals vs 79.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+4.2 pp
81.3% on 16 deals vs 77.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
16
Mean model percentile
82
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 80.0% (4 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 37.6%–96.4%.
Vs exit base rate
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
16 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wantfulwantful.com | 2012 | No | 94 | — |
| One Jacksononejackson.com | 2012 | No | 93 | — |
| Wheelzwheelz.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Flooredfloored.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Sunglasssunglass.io | 2012 | No | 87 | — |
| Matterportmatterport.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Thanxthanx.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Trumakertrumaker.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| RJMetricsrjmetrics.com | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Wanelowanelo.com | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Building Roboticsbuildingrobotics.com | 2013 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Nominomi.so | 2013 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Covercover.com | 2013 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Cabifycabify.com | 2012 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Whistlewhistle.com | 2013 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Oscarhioscar.com | 2013 | Yes | 51 | — |