Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Redpoint Ventures vs Kairos
96th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 71.8% (56 of 78 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 61.0%–80.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 79th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+27.8 pp
71.8% on 78 deals vs 44.0%
Vs median VC book
+16.7 pp
71.6% on 74 deals vs 54.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
+1.9 pp
71.6% on 74 deals vs 69.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+1.3 pp
70.1% on 67 deals vs 68.9%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 74 of 78 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
73
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
21/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 34.4% (22 of 64). 95% Wilson interval 23.9%–46.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+20.4 pp
34.4% on 64 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
78 labeled follow-on deals, 4 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravitygravity.com | 2009 | No | 100 | Yes |
| SocialVibesocialvibe.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Envia Systemsenviasystems.com | 2008 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Cloud.comcloud.com | 2010 | No | 97 | — |
| obopayobopay.com | 2006 | Yes | 97 | — |
| LeadPointleadpoint.com | 2006 | Yes | 97 | — |
| StorSimplestorsimple.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Impact Radiusimpactradius.com | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| DailyStrengthdailystrength.org | 2007 | No | 95 | — |
| Clickerclicker.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Topspin Mediatopspinmedia.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| WiChoruswichorus.com | 2005 | Yes | 93 | — |
| TheFind, Inc.thefind.com | 2005 | Yes | 93 | — |
| M2Z Networksm2znetworks.com | 2006 | No | 92 | — |
| Clearwell Systemsclearwellsystems.com | 2006 | Yes | 92 | — |
| BlueKaibluekai.com | 2008 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Electric Impelectricimp.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Sparkplay Mediasparkplaymedia.com | 2008 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Schooner Information Technologyschoonerinfotech.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Pulsepulseapp.co | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Rebel Monkeyrebelmonkey.com | 2008 | No | 89 | — |
| Datameerdatameer.com | 2010 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Gaia Interactivegaiainteractive.com | 2006 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Caymas Systems | 2003 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Soshsosh.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| NatureBoxnaturebox.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Curious.comcurious.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Oodleoodle.com | 2006 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Qwiltqwilt.com | 2010 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Getaroundgetaround.com | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Glimpsejoinglimpse.com | 2006 | No | 83 | — |
| Chillchill.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| SpinMedia Groupspinmedia.com | 2007 | Yes | 81 | — |
| The Fanfare Groupfanfaresoftware.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| BlueStacksbluestacks.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| HomeAwayhomeaway.com | 2005 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Intermolecularintermolecular.com | 2006 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Zing Systemszing.net | 2006 | No | 75 | — |
| LifeSize, a Division of Logitechlifesize.com | 2005 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Efficient Frontierefrontier.com | 2006 | No | 69 | — |
| TelASIC Communicationstelasic.com | 2003 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Advanced Power Projectsadvancedpowerprojects.com | 2008 | No | 66 | — |
| CouchOnecouchone.com | 2009 | No | 65 | — |
| WebVisiblewebvisible.com | 2005 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Trapeze Networkstrapezenetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 63 | — |
| DevZuzdevzuz.com | 2007 | No | 63 | — |
| Apogee Photonics | 2005 | No | 62 | — |
| Zimbrazimbra.com | 2006 | No | 62 | — |
| Wochitwochit.com | 2013 | Yes | 60 | — |
| mig33mig33.com | 2007 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Tastemadetastemade.com | 2013 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Vativ Technologies | 2005 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Kazeonkazeon.com | 2005 | Yes | 54 | — |
| JotSpotjot.com | 2004 | No | 51 | — |
| Mobilygen | 2006 | No | 51 | — |
| TeleCommunication Systemstelecomsys.com | 2004 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Networks in Motionnetworksinmotion.com | 2004 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Delivdeliv.co | 2013 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Kodiak Networkskodiaknetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Beijing second hand information companymiaozhen.com | 2010 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Gokoplaydominion.com | 2012 | No | 43 | — |
| 9flats9flats.com | 2012 | No | 43 | — |
| Avneraavnera.com | 2004 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Moogsoftmoogsoft.com | 2013 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Fraud Sciencesfraudsciences.com | 2007 | No | 41 | — |
| Archetype Mediaarchetypemedia.com | 2008 | Yes | 36 | — |
| Akanaakana.com | 2006 | No | 31 | — |
| Amp'd Mobileampd.com | 2005 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Cortina Systemscortina-systems.com | 2005 | Yes | 27 | — |
| 55social55social.com | 2011 | No | 25 | — |
| Liquid Lightllchemical.com | 2011 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Azul Systemsazulsystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipmentamec-inc.com | 2004 | Yes | 4 | — |
| PandoDailypando.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Responsysresponsys.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |
| Movarismovaris.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| CyanogenModcyanogenmod.org | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Refresh.iorefresh.io | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Xuanyixiayixia.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Novera Optics | 2001 | No | — | — |
| OuterBay Technologiesouterbay.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| InstantCabinstantcab.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |