Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Relay Ventures vs Kairos
68th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 76.5% (13 of 17 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.7%–90.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 82nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+29.2 pp
76.5% on 17 deals vs 47.3%
Vs median VC book
+15.0 pp
76.5% on 17 deals vs 61.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-0.5 pp
76.5% on 17 deals vs 77.0%
Vs Y Combinator
+8.1 pp
76.5% on 17 deals vs 68.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
16
Mean model percentile
67
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 50.0% (4 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 21.5%–78.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+37.1 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 12.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
17 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tungle.metungle.me | 2007 | Yes | 91 | — |
| SocialDecksocialdeck.com | 2009 | No | 89 | — |
| Influitiveinfluitive.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| PubNubpubnub.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Utah Street Labsutahstreetlabs.com | 2012 | No | 79 | — |
| Tempo AItempo.ai | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Kira Talentkiratalent.com | 2013 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Fuse Powered Inc.fusepowered.com | 2010 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Shoplogixshoplogix.com | 2007 | No | 66 | — |
| ClearFitclearfit.com | 2011 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Extreme Startupsextremestartups.com | 2012 | Yes | 59 | — |
| MOJIOmoj.io | 2013 | Yes | 54 | — |
| theScore, Inc.corporate.thescore.com | 2013 | Yes | 53 | — |
| QuickPlay Mediaquickplay.com | 2006 | Yes | 47 | — |
| GlassBoxglassbox.tv | 2008 | Yes | 41 | — |
| ecobeeecobee.com | 2007 | No | 28 | — |
| TouchBistrotouchbistro.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |