Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Rembrandt Venture Partners vs Kairos
28th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 53.3% (8 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 30.1%–75.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 43rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+8.3 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 45.1%
Vs median VC book
-1.6 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 54.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-15.8 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 69.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-17.2 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 70.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
75
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 63.6% (7 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 35.4%–84.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+49.9 pp
63.6% on 11 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coveroocoveroo.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Xactly Corpxactlycorp.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Proximetryproximetry.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Buysightbuysight.com | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Home-Accounthome-account.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| MessageCastweb.archive.org | 2005 | No | 94 | — |
| MetaLINCSmetalincs.com | 2005 | No | 90 | — |
| Rhythm NewMediarhythmnewmedia.com | 2010 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Concurrent Incconcurrentinc.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Socializrsocializr.com | 2006 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Mirage Networksmiragenetworks.com | 2005 | No | 64 | — |
| Chugchug.net | 2012 | No | 60 | — |
| Skybox Securityskyboxsecurity.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| Foundation Softwarefoundationsoft.com | 2012 | No | 32 | — |
| Yoink Games | 2012 | No | 30 | — |