Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Rho Capital Partners vs Kairos
45th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 56.5% (13 of 23 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 36.8%–74.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 53rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+13.9 pp
56.5% on 23 deals vs 42.6%
Vs median VC book
+2.8 pp
56.5% on 23 deals vs 53.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-12.2 pp
56.5% on 23 deals vs 68.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-9.2 pp
56.5% on 23 deals vs 65.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
23
Mean model percentile
62
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (4 of 20). 95% Wilson interval 8.1%–41.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+6.4 pp
20.0% on 20 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
23 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dashlanedashlane.com | 2011 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Nuventixnuventix.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| XGraphxgraph.com | 2010 | No | 96 | — |
| itzbigitzbig.com | 2007 | No | 91 | — |
| Fixmofixmo.com | 2010 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Convey Computerconveycomputer.com | 2007 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Effective Measureeffectivemeasure.com | 2010 | No | 83 | — |
| Vidyovidyo.com | 2007 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Channelinsightchannelinsight.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| MovieSetmovieset.com | 2008 | No | 66 | — |
| Iscopia Softwareiscopia.com | 2007 | Yes | 62 | — |
| WiNetworkswinetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 59 | — |
| MPVexperian.com | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| Integral Wave Technologies | 2007 | No | 56 | — |
| Gearworksgearworks.com | 2007 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Ciris Energycirisenergy.com | 2010 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Mersana Therapeuticsmersana.com | 2005 | No | 49 | — |
| Multispectral Imaging | 2005 | No | 46 | — |
| CloudPaycloudpay.net | 2008 | Yes | 45 | — |
| NGM Biopharmaceuticalsngmbio.com | 2008 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Avolentavolent.com | 2006 | No | 24 | — |
| diaDexusdiadexus.com | 2007 | Yes | 21 | — |
| IdenTrustidentrust.com | 2005 | No | 12 | — |