Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Rincon Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.0% (7 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.7%–89.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+24.2 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 45.8%
Vs median VC book
+12.7 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 57.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-2.8 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 72.8%
Vs Y Combinator
+2.2 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 67.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
83
Flagged deals
33/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 57.1% (4 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 25.0%–84.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+43.0 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RingRevenueringrevenue.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Burstlyburstly.com | 2010 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Campus Explorercampusexplorer.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| SHIFTshift.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Tradesytradesy.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Wittlebeewittlebee.com | 2012 | No | 87 | — |
| CADFORCEcadforce.com | 2006 | Yes | 80 | — |
| ElephantDriveelephantdrive.com | 2007 | No | 75 | — |
| Packet Islandpacketisland.com | 2006 | No | 67 | — |
| Rentlyticsrentlytics.com | 2013 | Yes | 45 | — |