Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
River Cities Capital Funds vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 40.0% (4 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 16.8%–68.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-5.9 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 45.9%
Vs median VC book
-12.4 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 56.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-26.2 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 70.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-27.6 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 72.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 9 of 10 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
51
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (2 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 7.1%–59.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+9.9 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 15.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Privarisprivaris.com | 2005 | No | 89 | — |
| WellNow Urgent Care Holdingswellnowuc.com | 2012 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Peoplefilter Technologypeoplefilter.com | 2006 | No | 78 | — |
| ISD Corporationisdcorporation.com | 2005 | No | 55 | — |
| StepLeaderstepleaderdigital.com | 2013 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Construction Software Technologiesisqft.com | 2006 | Yes | 38 | — |
| MX Logicmxlogic.com | 2006 | No | 35 | — |
| NineSigmaninesigma.com | 2008 | Yes | 23 | — |
| SmartSignalsmartsignal.com | 2005 | No | 21 | — |
| PerfectServeperfectserve.com | 2000 | No | — | — |