Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.

Research book · 3-year follow-on

Robin Hood Ventures vs Kairos

Not ranked

Whole-book follow-on hit rate 40.0% (2 of 5 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 11.8%–76.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.3%. This is not a fund return.

Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 5.

Fund board

Vs same-vintage base rate

-4.3 pp

40.0% on 5 deals vs 44.3%

Vs median VC book

-15.7 pp

40.0% on 5 deals vs 55.7%

Vs top-quartile VC

-33.3 pp

40.0% on 5 deals vs 73.3%

Vs Y Combinator

-31.6 pp

40.0% on 5 deals vs 71.6%

Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.

What Kairos would have said

Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.

Deals with a score

Mean model percentile

Flagged deals

0no labeled flagged deals

Companies

5 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).

Company	Vintage	Follow-on	Kairos percentile	Flagged
Novira Therapeuticsnoviratherapeutics.com	2011	Yes	83	—
DailyWorthdailyworth.com	2011	Yes	80	—
DocDepdocdep.com	2011	No	66	—
Compliance Assurancecomplyfast.com	2011	No	65	—
NanoPacknanopackinc.com	2008	No	32	—
Drop ’til You Shopdroptilyoushop.com	2013	Unobserved	—	—