Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
RockPort Capital vs Kairos
67th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 68.2% (15 of 22 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 47.3%–83.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 74th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+25.1 pp
68.2% on 22 deals vs 43.1%
Vs median VC book
+14.1 pp
68.2% on 22 deals vs 54.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-2.4 pp
68.2% on 22 deals vs 70.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+8.3 pp
68.2% on 22 deals vs 59.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
22
Mean model percentile
53
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 37.5% (6 of 16). 95% Wilson interval 18.5%–61.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+25.4 pp
37.5% on 16 deals vs 12.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
22 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Achates Powerachatespower.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Enphase Energyenphaseenergy.com | 2009 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Tioga Energytiogaenergy.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Project Frogprojectfrog.com | 2008 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Recurverecurve.com | 2008 | Yes | 86 | — |
| InVisage Technologiesinvisage.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| EcoFactorecofactor.com | 2010 | Yes | 73 | — |
| GaN Systemsgansystems.com | 2011 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Advanced Electron Beamsaeb.com | 2007 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Solar Universesolaruniverse.com | 2011 | No | 60 | — |
| Soliant Energysoliant-energy.com | 2008 | No | 43 | — |
| NanoGramnanogram.com | 2006 | Yes | 41 | — |
| NewLeaf Symbioticsnewleafsym.com | 2013 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Lilliputian Systemsnectarpower.com | 2007 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Hycretehycrete.com | 2008 | No | 33 | — |
| PPT Reasearchpptresearch.com | 2008 | No | 32 | — |
| Northern Power Systemsnorthernpower.com | 2008 | No | 28 | — |
| Aspen Aerogelsaerogel.com | 2008 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Deerpath Energydeerpathenergy.com | 2008 | No | 22 | — |
| EcoSMART Technologiesecosmart.com | 2008 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Southwest Windpowerwindenergy.com | 2007 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Thinkthinkev.com | 2010 | No | 13 | — |