Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Rose Tech Ventures vs Kairos
83rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 78.9% (15 of 19 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 56.7%–91.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 90th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+36.9 pp
78.9% on 19 deals vs 42.1%
Vs median VC book
+27.7 pp
78.9% on 19 deals vs 51.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
+12.6 pp
78.9% on 19 deals vs 66.4%
Vs Y Combinator
+20.3 pp
81.3% on 16 deals vs 60.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
19
Mean model percentile
73
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 21.1% (4 of 19). 95% Wilson interval 8.5%–43.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+8.3 pp
21.1% on 19 deals vs 12.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
19 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialbombsocialbomb.com | 2008 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Critical Mediacritical-media.com | 2004 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Magneticmagnetictax.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| LearnVestlearnvest.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Standout Jobsstandoutjobs.com | 2008 | No | 93 | — |
| Good Health Mediasideeffectsof.co | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| TalkShoetalkshoe.com | 2008 | No | 89 | — |
| eJammingejamming.com | 2005 | Yes | 86 | — |
| KidZuikidzui.com | 2006 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Instinctivinstinctiv.com | 2008 | Yes | 78 | — |
| PerformLineperformline.com | 2009 | Yes | 72 | — |
| SAY Mediasaymedia.com | 2005 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Waywire Networksenterprise.waywire.com | 2007 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Senscientsenscient.com | 2008 | No | 62 | — |
| LinkStormlinkstorms.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Gust | 2004 | No | 55 | — |
| UGOBEpleoworld.com | 2006 | Yes | 51 | — |
| KoolSpankoolspan.com | 2003 | Yes | 33 | — |
| NowPublicnowpublic.com | 2005 | Yes | 18 | — |