Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Rothenberg Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 78.6% (11 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.4%–92.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 52.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+25.7 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 52.9%
Vs median VC book
+6.5 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 72.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-8.3 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 86.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+4.5 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 74.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
57
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booshakabooshaka.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Chat Sportschatsports.com | 2012 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Patreonpatreon.com | 2013 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Propellerusepropeller.com | 2013 | No | 71 | — |
| 27 bards27bards.com | 2012 | No | 62 | — |
| Swing by Swingswingbyswing.com | 2012 | No | 46 | — |
| Chubbies Shortschubbiesshorts.com | 2012 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Bustlebustle.com | 2013 | Yes | 41 | — |
| NewHivenewhive.com | 2012 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Friendemicfriendemic.com | 2013 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Pixleepixlee.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Open Meopenme.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| AuditFileauditfile.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| The New Hivenewhive.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Hullabaluhullabalu.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |