Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
RPM Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 71.4% (10 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 45.4%–88.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+27.2 pp
71.4% on 14 deals vs 44.2%
Vs median VC book
+15.7 pp
71.4% on 14 deals vs 55.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+0.2 pp
71.4% on 14 deals vs 71.2%
Vs Y Combinator
+6.1 pp
71.4% on 14 deals vs 65.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
72
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 46.2% (6 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 23.2%–70.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+32.7 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArborMetrixarbormetrix.com | 2013 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Mobius Microsystemsmobiusmicro.com | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Mojo Motorsmojomotors.com | 2010 | Yes | 88 | — |
| BountyJobsbountyjobs.com | 2006 | Yes | 88 | — |
| ShareThissharethis.com | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Giftlygiftly.com | 2011 | No | 85 | — |
| Oxlo Systemsoxlo.com | 2005 | No | 84 | — |
| TetraVitae Biosciencetetravitae.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Wide Open Spaceswideopenspaces.com | 2011 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Kabongokabongo.com | 2009 | Yes | 65 | — |
| RiverGlass, Inc.riverglassinc.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Arbor Photonicsarborphotonics.com | 2007 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Applimationapplimation.com | 2005 | No | 33 | — |
| OPENLANEopenlane.com | 2008 | No | 27 | — |
| Luvocracyluvocracy.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |