Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
RRE Ventures vs Kairos
66th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.9% (39 of 64 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 48.7%–71.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 60th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+17.0 pp
60.9% on 64 deals vs 44.0%
Vs median VC book
+5.0 pp
61.0% on 59 deals vs 56.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-10.2 pp
61.0% on 59 deals vs 71.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-9.4 pp
60.8% on 51 deals vs 70.2%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 59 of 64 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
56
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 29.4% (15 of 51). 95% Wilson interval 18.7%–43.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+16.5 pp
29.4% on 51 deals vs 12.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
64 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payfonepayfone.com | 2008 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Hot Potatohotpotato.com | 2009 | No | 98 | — |
| Spanfeller Media Groupspanfellergroup.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Solvatesolvate.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Boom Financialuseboom.com | 2008 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Flipswapflipswap.com | 2008 | No | 97 | — |
| Peekpeek.ly | 2008 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Tipprtippr.com | 2008 | No | 94 | — |
| Drobodrobo.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| SinglePlatformsingleplatform.com | 2010 | Yes | 94 | — |
| HowAboutWehowaboutwe.com | 2010 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Popdustpopdust.com | 2011 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Nodejitsunodejitsu.com | 2011 | Yes | 89 | — |
| HYLA Mobilehylamobile.com | 2008 | No | 88 | — |
| Amicusamicushq.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Roundboxroundbox.com | 2005 | Yes | 88 | — |
| StyleTrekstyletrek.com | 2010 | No | 87 | — |
| VYouvyou.com | 2011 | No | 87 | — |
| Trumakertrumaker.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Kohortkohort.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| Affinity Chinaaffinitychina.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Storm Exchangestormexchange.com | 2006 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Yieldbotyieldbot.com | 2010 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Nexsannexsan.com | 2003 | No | 84 | — |
| Vinevine.co | 2012 | No | 82 | — |
| Shakeshakelaw.com | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Liftlift.gs | 2012 | No | 81 | — |
| Proofpointproofpoint.com | 2003 | Yes | 79 | — |
| drop.iodrop.io | 2007 | Yes | 74 | — |
| StreetSparkstreetspark.com | 2010 | No | 74 | — |
| Trusted Insightthetrustedinsight.com | 2010 | No | 73 | — |
| DailyLookdailylook.com | 2013 | No | 71 | — |
| Betaworksbetaworks.com | 2008 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Kroll Bond Rating Agencykrollbondratings.com | 2010 | No | 68 | — |
| mobiTerisbuyfi.com | 2010 | No | 67 | — |
| Semtek Innovative Solutionssemtek.com | 2007 | Yes | 57 | — |
| PrimeRevenueprimerevenue.com | 2005 | No | 54 | — |
| Certeoncerteon.com | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| The Skimmtheskimm.com | 2013 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Connectivity Data Systems | 2010 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Yhatyhat.com | 2013 | Yes | 45 | — |
| SmartPay Jieyin | 2005 | Yes | 43 | — |
| WhipTailwhiptail.com | 2011 | Yes | 40 | — |
| SavaJe Technologies | 2003 | Yes | 37 | — |
| OpenPeakopenpeak.com | 2006 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Taquataqua.com | 2003 | No | 28 | — |
| Enpirionenpirion.com | 2004 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Frictionless Commerce | 2005 | No | 28 | — |
| WisdomTreewisdomtree.com | 2004 | No | 26 | — |
| Scout Analyticsscoutanalytics.com | 2006 | No | 25 | — |
| Electric Cloudelectric-cloud.com | 2004 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Quirkyquirky.com | 2006 | No | 15 | — |
| K2 Intelligencek2intelligence.com | 2010 | Yes | 15 | — |
| Visiprisevisiprise.com | 2005 | No | 9 | — |
| iCrossingicrossing.com | 2005 | Yes | 8 | — |
| Massivemassiveincorporated.com | 2004 | Yes | 4 | — |
| basnobasno.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| MessageOne | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Tacit Networks | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| ReefEdgereefedge.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Koa.lakoa.la | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| itBititbit.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| TapCommercetapcommerce.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| BroadSoftbroadsoft.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Mingyianmingyian.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Teja Technologies | 2002 | No | — | — |