Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Runa Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 38.5% (5 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 17.7%–64.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-10.1 pp
38.5% on 13 deals vs 48.5%
Vs median VC book
-25.0 pp
38.5% on 13 deals vs 63.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-40.5 pp
38.5% on 13 deals vs 79.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-37.3 pp
38.5% on 13 deals vs 75.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
45
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 80.0% (4 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 37.6%–96.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+68.6 pp
80.0% on 5 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 4 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| StopTheHackerstopthehacker.com | 2012 | No | 82 | — |
| NGINX, Inc.nginx.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Jelasticjelastic.com | 2010 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Infratelinfratel.com | 2012 | No | 70 | — |
| Talkbitstalkbits.com | 2012 | No | 60 | — |
| Wallarmwallarm.com | 2013 | No | 44 | — |
| OnAir3G | 2010 | No | 32 | — |
| Qualiteam Softwareqtmsoft.com | 2011 | No | 14 | — |
| ThinkGridthinkgrid.com | 2011 | No | 14 | — |
| Metabarmetabar.ru | 2011 | No | 12 | — |
| B2B-Centerb2b-center.ru | 2012 | Yes | 10 | — |
| BackupAgentbackupagent.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Playtoxplaytox.ru | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Cellroxcellrox.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Anturisanturis.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| GRUZOBZORgruzobzor.ru | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| RocketBankrocketbank.ru | 2013 | Yes | — | — |