Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Rustic Canyon Partners vs Kairos
16th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 40.0% (10 of 25 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.4%–59.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 26th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-3.4 pp
40.0% on 25 deals vs 43.4%
Vs median VC book
-11.8 pp
41.7% on 24 deals vs 53.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-27.1 pp
41.7% on 24 deals vs 68.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-24.5 pp
39.1% on 23 deals vs 63.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 24 of 25 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
24
Mean model percentile
73
Flagged deals
32/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 13.6% (3 of 22). 95% Wilson interval 4.7%–33.3%.
Vs exit base rate
-0.3 pp
13.6% on 22 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
25 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kruglekrugle.com | 2006 | No | 100 | Yes |
| MerchantCirclemerchantcircle.com | 2006 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Trion Worldstrionworlds.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Sciencescience-inc.com | 2011 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Perfect Marketperfectmarket.com | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Ohaiohai.com | 2009 | No | 94 | — |
| TopFloortopfloor.com | 2012 | No | 93 | — |
| TwoFishtwofish.com | 2006 | Yes | 92 | — |
| DanceJamdancejam.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Velocifyvelocify.com | 2007 | No | 89 | — |
| Dipitydipity.com | 2007 | No | 88 | — |
| LimeLifelimelife.com | 2005 | Yes | 83 | — |
| InSync Softwareinsyncinfo.com | 2006 | No | 80 | — |
| Hidden City Gameshiddencitygames.com | 2007 | No | 79 | — |
| Fulcrum Bioenergyfulcrum-bioenergy.com | 2008 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Serious Energyseriousenergy.com | 2007 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Azaire Networksazairenet.com | 2006 | No | 71 | — |
| PlayFirstplayfirst.com | 2004 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Ellieellie.com | 2013 | No | 48 | — |
| ThermaSourcethermasource.com | 2008 | No | 46 | — |
| RiverOneriverone.com | 2005 | No | 40 | — |
| CaseRev | 2006 | No | 24 | — |
| LoopNetloopnet.com | 2009 | No | 19 | — |
| ePartnersepartnersolutions.com | 2005 | No | 11 | — |
| iCopyrightinfo.icopyright.com | 2002 | No | — | — |