Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
S3 Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 100.0% (5 of 5 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 56.6%–100.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 5.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+57.5 pp
100.0% on 5 deals vs 42.5%
Vs median VC book
+46.6 pp
100.0% on 5 deals vs 53.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
+31.2 pp
100.0% on 5 deals vs 68.8%
Vs Y Combinator
+36.8 pp
100.0% on 5 deals vs 63.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
5
Mean model percentile
77
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 60.0% (3 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 23.1%–88.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+48.1 pp
60.0% on 5 deals vs 11.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
5 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Invodoinvodo.com | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Phurnace Softwarebmc.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Gravitantgravitant.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Callvinecallvine.com | 2010 | Yes | 73 | — |
| StoredIQstorediq.com | 2008 | Yes | 37 | — |