Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
SAIF Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 63.6% (7 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.4%–84.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.1%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+19.6 pp
63.6% on 11 deals vs 44.1%
Vs median VC book
+11.0 pp
63.6% on 11 deals vs 52.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-3.3 pp
63.6% on 11 deals vs 66.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-6.1 pp
63.6% on 11 deals vs 69.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
53
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–29.9%.
Vs exit base rate
-14.8 pp
0.0% on 9 deals vs 14.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPTVpptv.com | 2005 | Yes | 96 | — |
| 58.com58.com | 2006 | Yes | 85 | — |
| CSS Corpcsscorp.com | 2006 | Yes | 76 | — |
| One97 Communicationsone97.com | 2008 | Yes | 69 | — |
| FirstCry.comfirstcry.com | 2012 | Yes | 67 | — |
| HomeShop18homeshop18.com | 2008 | No | 55 | — |
| Channelsoft (Beijing) Technologychannelsoft.com | 2005 | No | 47 | — |
| MakeMyTrip.commakemytrip.com | 2006 | Yes | 38 | — |
| SEVEN Networksseven.com | 2006 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Cybernet Software Systemsservices.cybernetsoft.com | 2006 | No | 12 | — |
| MainOnemainonecable.com | 2005 | No | 12 | — |