Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Samsung Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 33.3% (2 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–70.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-12.0 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 45.3%
Vs median VC book
-23.3 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 56.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-37.8 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 71.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-42.5 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 75.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNP Green Technologydnpgreen.com | 2010 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Maluubamaluuba.com | 2012 | No | 89 | — |
| LensVectorlensvector.com | 2010 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Sonicssonicsinc.com | 2005 | No | 57 | — |
| MasterImage 3Dmasterimage3d.com | 2011 | No | 36 | — |
| Intematixintematix.com | 2006 | Yes | 11 | — |