Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Sanderling Ventures vs Kairos
70th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 73.3% (11 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 48.0%–89.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 85th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+32.0 pp
73.3% on 15 deals vs 41.3%
Vs median VC book
+28.2 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 50.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
+13.3 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 65.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+9.3 pp
75.0% on 12 deals vs 65.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 14 of 15 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (3 of 15). 95% Wilson interval 7.0%–45.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+6.4 pp
20.0% on 15 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asteresasteres.com | 2003 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Taligen Therapeuticstaligentherapeutics.com | 2005 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Actimis Pharmaceuticalsactimis.com | 2005 | No | 90 | — |
| Axikin Pharmaceuticalsaxikin.com | 2009 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Torax Medicaltoraxmedical.com | 2005 | No | 86 | — |
| TheraVidatheravida.com | 2010 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Chimerixchimerix.com | 2003 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Xytisxytis.com | 2006 | No | 74 | — |
| Endocyteendocyte.com | 2006 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Lineagenlineagen.com | 2008 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Sotera Wirelesssoterawireless.com | 2008 | Yes | 42 | — |
| ViaCyteviacyte.com | 2006 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Gemin X Pharmaceuticalsgeminx.com | 2008 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Neomendneomend.com | 2007 | Yes | 14 | — |
| Trinity Biosystemstrinitybiosystems.com | 2002 | No | — | — |