Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
SAP Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (8 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 32.6%–78.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+13.2 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 43.9%
Vs median VC book
+3.4 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 53.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-11.3 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 68.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-12.9 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 70.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
39
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 45.5% (5 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 21.3%–72.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+30.9 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 14.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alteryx, Inc.alteryx.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| VoiceObjectsvoiceobjects.com | 2005 | Yes | 68 | — |
| SAVOsavogroup.com | 2005 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Factory Logicfactorylogic.com | 2005 | No | 50 | — |
| Avokia | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| Virtual Iron Softwarevirtualiron.com | 2005 | Yes | 46 | — |
| iovationiovation.com | 2008 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Reva Systemsrevasystems.com | 2006 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Newgen Software Technologiesnewgensoft.com | 2008 | No | 31 | — |
| Connectiva Systemsconnectivasystems.com | 2008 | No | 27 | — |
| Just Dialjustdial.com | 2011 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Questraquestra.com | 2006 | No | 15 | — |
| Dacos Softwaredacos.com | 2006 | No | 14 | — |
| RIB Softwarerib-software.com | 2010 | Yes | 3 | — |