Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Scale Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 64.3% (9 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 38.8%–83.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+22.7 pp
64.3% on 14 deals vs 41.6%
Vs median VC book
+13.0 pp
64.3% on 14 deals vs 51.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-0.8 pp
64.3% on 14 deals vs 65.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-8.2 pp
63.6% on 11 deals vs 71.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 23.1% (3 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–50.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+8.1 pp
23.1% on 13 deals vs 15.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MerchantCirclemerchantcircle.com | 2006 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Zogenixzogenix.com | 2006 | Yes | 85 | — |
| BuyerLinkbuyerlink.com | 2005 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Entone Technologiesentone.com | 2003 | No | 78 | — |
| ScanSafescansafe.com | 2007 | Yes | 74 | — |
| NComputingncomputing.com | 2006 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Alimera Sciencesalimerasciences.com | 2004 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Mbloxmblox.com | 2004 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Hubspanhubspan.com | 2005 | No | 62 | — |
| Century Hospicecenturyhospice.com | 2010 | No | 42 | — |
| Teros | 2005 | No | 41 | — |
| Siimpel Corporationsiimpel.com | 2005 | Yes | 31 | — |
| diaDexusdiadexus.com | 2007 | Yes | 21 | — |
| Cogency Softwarecogencysoft.com | 2005 | No | 20 | — |