Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Scottish Equity Partners (SEP) vs Kairos
9th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 34.0% (17 of 50 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 22.4%–47.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 40.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 21st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-6.9 pp
34.0% on 50 deals vs 40.9%
Vs median VC book
-18.6 pp
31.6% on 38 deals vs 50.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-34.0 pp
31.6% on 38 deals vs 65.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-31.7 pp
35.7% on 28 deals vs 67.4%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 38 of 50 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
38
Mean model percentile
50
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 12.8% (5 of 39). 95% Wilson interval 5.6%–26.7%.
Vs exit base rate
-0.5 pp
12.8% on 39 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
50 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zinwavezinwave.com | 2005 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Powervationpowervation.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Empower Interactiveempower-interactive.com | 2006 | No | 84 | — |
| CamSemicamsemi.com | 2003 | No | 84 | — |
| Intercytex Groupintercytex.com | 2003 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Atraverdaatraverda.co.uk | 2007 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Xanicxanic.co.uk | 2007 | No | 73 | — |
| SkyDoxskydox.com | 2012 | No | 71 | — |
| ARKeXarkex.com | 2004 | Yes | 68 | — |
| BioVexbiovex.com | 2003 | No | 68 | — |
| ip.accessipaccess.com | 2006 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Futuretecfuturetec-ltd.com | 2008 | No | 65 | — |
| CYBERHAWK Innovationsthecyberhawk.com | 2012 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Chronicle Solutionschroniclesolutions.com | 2006 | No | 59 | — |
| Skyscannerskyscanner.com | 2007 | No | 58 | — |
| Exco InTouchexcointouch.com | 2011 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Media Ingenuitymediaingenuity.com | 2011 | No | 56 | — |
| Verisimverisim.com | 2004 | No | 54 | — |
| Cmedcmedresearch.com | 2008 | No | 53 | — |
| Rhytec | 2004 | No | 49 | — |
| Deep Casing Toolsdeepcasingtools.com | 2008 | No | 48 | — |
| Heartscapeprimeecg.uk.com | 2007 | No | 48 | — |
| MTEM Limited | 2004 | No | 48 | — |
| Aridhia Informaticsaridhia.com | 2009 | No | 45 | — |
| Smarter Grid Solutionssmartergridsolutions.com | 2012 | Yes | 42 | — |
| ControlCirclecontrolcircle.com | 2010 | No | 39 | — |
| Sumeriansumerian.com | 2008 | No | 38 | — |
| Fotechfotechsolutions.com | 2008 | No | 36 | — |
| Green Highland Renewablesgreenhighland.co.uk | 2012 | Yes | 24 | — |
| AMGasamgas.co.uk | 2003 | No | 23 | — |
| Micron Technologymicron.com | 2006 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Geothermal Internationalgienergy.net | 2011 | No | 20 | — |
| Surfkitchensurfkitchen.com | 2004 | No | 20 | — |
| Matches Fashionmatchesfashion.com | 2012 | Yes | 18 | — |
| IndigoVisionindigovision.com | 2011 | No | 16 | — |
| Vital Energivitalenergi.co.uk | 2012 | No | 14 | — |
| Reaqua Systemsreaquasystems.com | 2012 | No | 14 | — |
| Searchspace | 2004 | No | 10 | — |
| daysoftdaysoftcontactlenses.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Rhetorical Group plc | 2001 | No | — | — |
| Aspects Softwareaspects-sw.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Photonic Materialsheraldscotland.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Essential Viewingessential-viewing.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| RadioScaperadioscape.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| MicroEmissive Displays Groupmicroemissive.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Gendel | 2002 | No | — | — |
| KALkal.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| Nallatechnallatech.com | 2000 | No | — | — |
| Tidewaytideway.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Terahertz Photonics | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Pure360pure360.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |