Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Scout Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 75.0% (6 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 40.9%–92.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+27.4 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 47.6%
Vs median VC book
+14.6 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 60.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-0.3 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 75.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-2.9 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 77.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
79
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portalariumportalarium.com | 2011 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Adcadeadcade.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Ampsyampsy.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| NetPlenishshopgeniusapp.com | 2012 | No | 84 | — |
| Plyfeplyfe.me | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Zipmarkzipmark.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| GateGurugateguruapp.com | 2011 | No | 64 | — |
| Unite Usuniteus.com | 2013 | Yes | 47 | — |